Assessing spatial uncertainties of land allocation using the scenario approach and sensitivity analysis

The paper assess uncertainty of future spatial allocation of agricultural land in Europe. To assess the possible future development of agricultural production and land for the period 2000 – 2030, two contrasting scenarios are constructed. The scenarios storylines lead to different measurable assumptions concerning scenario specific drivers (variables) and parameters. Many of them are estimations and thus include a certain level of uncertainty regarding their true values. This leads to uncertainty of the scenario outcomes. In this study we use sensitivity analysis to estimate the uncertainty of agricultural land use.spatial uncertainty, scenario approach, sensitivity analysis., Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Labor and Human Capital,

The overlooked spatial dimension of climate-smart agriculture

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) and sustainable intensification (SI) are widely claimed to be high-potential solutions to address the interlinked challenges of food security and climate change. Operationalization of these promising concepts is still lacking and potential trade-offs are often not considered in the current continental- to global-scale assessments. Here we discuss the effect of spatial variability in the context of the implementation of climate-smart practices on two central indicators, namely yield development and carbon sequestration, considering biophysical limitations of suggested benefits, socioeconomic and institutional barriers to adoption, and feedback mechanisms across scales. We substantiate our arguments by an illustrative analysis using the example of a hypothetical large-scale adoption of conservation agriculture (CA) in sub-Saharan Africa. We argue that, up to now, large-scale assessments widely neglect the spatially variable effects of climate-smart practices, leading to inflated statements about co-benefits of agricultural production and climate change mitigation potentials. There is an urgent need to account for spatial variability in assessments of climate-smart practices and target those locations where synergies in land functions can be maximized in order to meet the global targets. Therefore, we call for more attention toward spatial planning and landscape optimization approaches in the operationalization of CSA and SI to navigate potential trade-offs

How will land degradation neutrality change future land system patterns?:A scenario simulation study

Land degradation is a major global issue and achieving a land degradation-neutral world is one of the Sustainable Development Goals. However, striving for land degradation neutrality (LDN) is challenged by increasing claims on land resources and could result in major land use conflicts. The aim of this study is to demonstrate how LDN can be implemented in land system modelling and how achieving LDN alongside sufficient supplies of food, timber and shelter could affect future land system patterns, using the Republic of Turkey as a case study. We developed a LDN scenario with full implementation of the guidelines and a business-as-usual scenario without pursuing LDN, and compared the resulting differences in land system changes. Additionally, the influence of different elements of the LDN framework on the land use projections was tested. Our results show that although it is possible to achieve LDN in the context of increasing demands for resources and housing, it might require a considerable re-organization of the land systems. Intensification of annual cropland systems was the main driver of new land degradation, which was in the LDN scenario primarily counterbalanced by large areas of afforestation, while other land improvement options only played a minor role. To achieve a no-net-loss, about 20% of Turkey’s territory was afforested in our scenario, mainly claiming extensively used annual cropland (~70%) and grassland (~30%). All individual LDN principles had a substantial impact on the final land system patterns meaning that the final outcome is not the result of just one of the principles, it is affected by all. Our findings suggest that pursuing LDN under growing demands for land-based products could stimulate a land sparing approach which might have trade-offs with other sustainability dimensions. This highlights the need for local support and new solutions for rural areas, thereby avoiding poverty, migration and illegal use of restoration areas

A global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios

The consideration of gross land changes, meaning all area gains and losses within a pixel or administrative unit (e.g. country), plays an essential role in the estimation of total land changes. Gross land changes affect the magnitude of total land changes, which feeds back to the attribution of biogeochemical and biophysical processes related to climate change in Earth System Models. Global empirical studies on gross land changes are currently lacking. Whilst the relevance of gross changes for global change has been indicated in the literature, it is not accounted for in future land change scenarios. In this study, we extract gross and net land change dynamics from large-scale and high-resolution (30-100m) remote sensing products to create a new global gross and net change dataset. Subsequently, we developed an approach to integrate our empirically derived gross and net changes with the results of future simulation models, by accounting for the gross and net change addressed by the land use model and the gross and net change that is below the resolution of modelling. Based on our empirical data, we found that gross land change within 0.5-degree grid cells were substantially larger than net changes in all parts of the world. As 0.5- degree grid cells are a standard resolution of Earth System Models, this leads to an underestimation of the amount of change. This finding contradicts earlier studies, which assumed gross land changes to appear in shifting cultivation areas only. Applied in a future scenario, the consideration of gross land changes led to approximately 50% more land changes globally compared to a net land change representation. Gross land changes were most important in heterogeneous land systems with multiple land uses (e.g. shifting cultivation, smallholder farming, and agro-forestry systems). Moreover, the importance of gross changes decreased over time due to further polarization and intensification of land use. Our results serve as empirical database for land change dynamics that can be applied in Earth System Models and Integrated Assessment Model

Expanding the toolbox : Assessing methods for local outdoor recreation planning

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Habitat loss, extinction predictability and conservation efforts in the terrestrial ecoregions

The destruction of natural habitats is causing loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Although a “zero deforestation” is targeted, agriculture expansion caused by increasing human population and per capita consumption might boost the destruction of natural habitats in the coming decades. Here, we estimated the current and future extinction crisis in terrestrial ecoregions caused by habitat destruction and related this pattern with the current conservation efforts. We applied an Endemics-Area Relationship to assess vertebrates' potential extinctions in 513 ecoregions based on current land cover data and a future scenario of habitat loss. We compared our predictions to the proportion of the ecoregions' area formally protected, testing the concordance between threat distribution and conservation efforts. Finally, we evaluated how the distribution of threat relates to the biodiversity hotspots delimitation. We found that 2134 endemic vertebrates are currently threatened due to accumulated habitat loss, which is consistent with the assessment of the IUCN Red List. Further, this threat could overtake 4209 species when considering habitat loss projections to 2040. Our findings indicate a high concentration of threat in a few megadiverse localities, some of them outside the biodiversity hotspots. We found little overlap between our predictions of extinction and current protected areas distribution. This study supports current biodiversity crisis diagnoses and the expected recrudescence of Anthropocene defaunation in the future when considering scenarios of further habitat destruction. Our analysis also contributes to the definition of global priorities to prevent further biodiversity loss

The environmental benefits of investment in agricultural science and technology: an application of global spatial benefit transfer

Food security is a major current and future policy concern. The world population is projected to reach 9 billion by 2050 and continuing growth in economic output and incomes is expected to result in changing food consumption patterns. In particular the wider adoption of ‘Western’ diets will result in both higher calorie intake and greater meat consumption. Continuing climate change is expected to add further pressures to agricultural production. This paper presents the results of a global analysis funded by the TEEB study on the environmental benefits of investment in agricultural knowledge, science and technology, specifically in terms of closing the gaps between developing and developed country agricultural productivity. The results show that by easing pressures on land use change on terrestrial biomes (forests and grasslands), and the ecosystem services they provide, investment in agricultural science and technology provides environmental benefits of US$161.3bn per annum in 2050. Between 2000 and 2050 these benefits amount to US$2,964bn in addition to US$6,343bn in carbon benefits and compare to costs of US$5,68bnResearch and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

What restrains Ethiopian NGOs to participate in the development of policies for natural resource management?

By law, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in Ethiopia are severely restricted in their activities towards policy development. In this study we explore to what extent these restrictions have affected NGOs in Natural Resource Management in the Oromia regional state of Ethiopia. We quantitatively analyzed 106 semi-structured questionnaires, in order to assess 1) the general characteristics of these NGO, 2) the role of NGOs in natural resource management, 3) the factors that constrain their activities, especially in relation to the proclamation, and 4) the cooperation between NGOs as well as other stakeholders. Results indicate that NGOs are mainly involved in policy implementation, including afforestation, forest management, and soil and water conservation. We find that a more active role in agenda setting and policy formulation is hampered by the 2009 proclamation, which explicitly restricts the role of Ethiopian Residence Charities/Societies (ERCS) and Foreign Charities (FC). Consistently, NGOs, as well as their donors, often avoid involvement in policy development, in fear of potential collusion with the government. In addition, NGOs listed legal and administrative barriers, poor networking and cooperation among NGOs, lack of capacity, lack of information, and a lack of clear role on policy issues as constraints for influencing policies for natural resource management. The extent to which these factors affect NGOs is dependent on their type and the source of their funding

Farmers’ participation in the development of land use policies for the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

Farmers in Ethiopia are elementary for the implementation of land use policies. However, in order to effectively implement these policies, they need to be aware of them, and accept them accordingly. In this study we assess to what extent farmers in the Central Rift Valley are aware of prevailing land use policies in their area, to what extent they participated in the development of these policies, and how they perceive the impacts of these policies, using interviews with local farmers as well as stakeholders from governmental institutions at various levels. Farmers and local governments indicated that there was very little participation in the development of land use policies. Contrary, government informants at higher level indicated the opposite, suggesting a gap between farmers and local governmental institutions on the one side and higher governmental institutions on the other side. The perceived lack of participation of farmers led to a lack of ownership, involuntary participation, and failure to use the local knowledge, all hampering the effective implementation of these policies. The recently introduced land registration and certification process was identified as an exception, as it was the result of a participatory process, generally leading to acceptance upon implementation. Despite their low policy awareness, farmers could identify the impacts of land use policies on land use and land cover change, as well as its impacts on their. Further improvement farmer participation in the development of land use policies could increase ownership and thus yield more effective implementation and avoid social unrest